That Model Snowfall Graphic You Found in Social Media Isn't Necessarily a Forecast ( WINTER WEATHER 101: What You Need to Know) 2. But it's just too soon to pinpoint any exact snowfall totals for specific cities.Īnd in a few cases, the potential snowstorm indicated by forecast models a week away evolves to a relative nothingburger by the time it moves through. So meteorologists frequently can see the potential for a snowstorm, say, somewhere in the Plains or Northeast up to a week out, and specify generally what time period it may occur. If you expect a quarter-inch of rain and get an inch, you may not see that as a forecast bust, but if you expect three inches of snow and end up with a foot, that's a different story. Moreover, a small change in the amount of moisture translates into a much bigger change in the amount of snowfall. If computer forecast models don't accurately represent where and how strong those distant jet disturbances are, they probably won't correctly forecast the evolution of the snowstorm several days away. Or it might depend on the potential interaction of the northern (polar) and southern (subtropical) jet streams. The system responsible for the potential snowstorm several days away may currently be over 1,000 miles away as a jet-stream disturbance over the Pacific or Arctic Ocean. It turns out, snow forecasts are usually challenging, even for the most experienced meteorologists. You might be frustrated when meteorologists say "this snow forecast is highly uncertain" or "it's too soon to tell how much snow will fall." We Typically Can't Predict Precise Snow Totals Beyond a Couple of Days ( LISTEN: The Weather Channel Podcast Discusses the Challenge of Snow Forecasting) 1. So, let's lay out some key things you should keep in mind the next time snow is in the forecast. There are many important aspects to any snowfall forecast beyond the basic "X to Y inches of accumulation are expected." Then, once the storm is over, you end up with more or less than the last forecast you remember. "Will this mess with my morning drive? Should I work from home?" Perhaps questions like these then race through your mind: An alarming social media post shows a model forecast snow graphic seven days away.
SNOWFALL FORECAST MODELS TV
Your local TV meteorologist mentions "snow is possible by Friday" in their 7-day forecast.
You check your weather app and see a snow icon later in the week.
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